Bitcoin Forecast to Drop Below $60,000 Amid Yen Carry Trade Stress
Bitcoin is forecast to drop below $60,000 as USD/JPY revisits stress levels from August 2024, with analysts and traders expecting the cryptocurrency to break toward $55,000 amid renewed yen carry trade unwinding. Market participants estimate a nearly 80% probability of Bitcoin testing below $60,000 in 2026, and a 52% chance of dipping below $50,000.
Bitcoin is forecast to drop below $60,000 in the near term as the dollar-yen exchange rate revisits the zone that triggered August 2024 carry trade unwinding, with the cryptocurrency breaking down from a bear flag pattern toward $55,000 [1]. Traders in derivatives markets are pricing a 79% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $60,000 in 2026, and a 52% chance it will test $50,000 this year [2].
The immediate catalyst is renewed stress in the yen carry trade, a leveraged strategy in which investors borrow yen at low rates to fund purchases of higher-yielding assets including cryptocurrencies. USD/JPY is now trading near levels that preceded sharp deleveraging last August, when Bitcoin fell 30% in three weeks as hedge funds and prop desks unwound positions across asset classes.
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